Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month
Comment of the Day

September 13 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month

This article by Joshua Zumbrun for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“This is definitely a significant shift in FOMC policy,” said Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas in New York and a former Fed economist. “This is a very aggressive commitment to success on its mandates.”

The central bank released its economic forecasts for growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates over the next three years. Twelve of the Fed's 19 policy makers said interest rates should rise for the first time in 2015.

The Fed now expects the job-market outlook to improve more swiftly by 2014, with unemployment forecast to fall to 6.7 percent to 7.3 percent, compared with 7 percent to 7.7 percent in their June projections. In 2015, unemployment will fall to 6 percent to 6.8 percent.

Eoin Treacy's view Global reflation anyone? With the Fed joining the ECB and Bank of China in announcing fresh measures to promote growth, the flow of liquidity to risk assets is virtually assured for the next few months. The Fed is deliberately courting inflation, since it expects economic activity to pick up in 2013 and 2014 but does not anticipate raising short-term interest rates until 2015. In pursing this policy it runs the risk of creating a bubble in another asset class just as it did with the financial sector following the Nasdaq crash; by maintaining loose monetary policy for too long.

The character of the stock market action since 2009 has been largely dependent on the flow of liquidity stemming from various extreme central bank actions. As long as the printing presses are humming, risk assets have tended to rally persistently. When they slow down, stock markets have witnessed abrupt, deep pullbacks.

The Nasdaq-100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials hit new recovery highs today. The three-month uptrends remain intact and sustained moves below 2730, 1390 and 13000 respectively would be required to question potential for continued upside.

Gold surged again today as it closes in on the psychological $1800 level. While prices are becoming increasingly overbought in the short-term a break in the progression of higher reaction lows, currently near $1725, would be required to begin to question the medium-term bullish outlook.

Brent crude oil is testing the upper side of the month-long range and a clear downward dynamic would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

If one were to bet on a bubble developing over the next few years then gold has the hallmark of a bull market that could climax in a mania while US Treasuries already represent a bubble which has not yet burst.

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