As is often the case, we are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies. In such circumstances, risk-management considerations are critical. At upcoming meetings, we will assess our progress based on the totality of the data and the evolving outlook and risks. Based on this assessment, we will proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data.
Restoring price stability is essential to achieving both sides of our dual mandate. We will need price stability to achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all.
The 2% target is still official. Judging by the response of the market to Powell’s statement today, traders are beginning to give that statement some additional weight. Larry Summers’ remark on Twitter this morning helps to put the dilemma into fresh perspective.
“It is sobering to recall that the shape of the past decade’s inflation curve almost perfectly shadows its path from 1966 to 1976 before it accelerated in the late 1970s.”Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top