India on Brink of Quantum Leap, Modi Tells Investors
Comment of the Day

January 13 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

India on Brink of Quantum Leap, Modi Tells Investors

Here is the opening of this informative report from Reuters:

(Reuters) - Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised on Sunday to pursue predictable policies and ensure stable taxes, in a speech that sought to address concerns for foreign investors in Asia's third-largest economy.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry led a roll call of leaders, including U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and World Bank head Jim Yong Kim, converging on Modi's home town of Gandhinagar for the Vibrant Gujarat business summit.

U.S. President Barack Obama visits India later this month.

Eight months into Modi's rule, his failure to lift the economyfrom its longest growth slowdown in a generation has raised questions about how much substance there is behind his promise of "red carpet, not red tape".

"We're trying to complete the circle of economic reforms speedily," Modi told the event that he founded when he was chief minister of the industrial state.

"We are also keen to see that our policies are predictable. We're clear that our tax regime should be stable," Modi said, speaking in English but making the occasional aside in Hindi.

Along with speakers from Japan, Canada and Singapore, Kerry praised his host and avoided direct criticism. But he hinted at the need to cut back India's stifling bureaucracy.

"We no longer live in a world where a country is going to be competitive if its bureaucracy sends people from door to door and window to window and meeting to meeting," he said.

David Fuller's view

As Prime Minister in the world’s largest democracy, one cannot slash and burn the country’s entrenched bureaucracy during the first few months of a four year term, even with an overall majority, without creating a degree of rebellion.  Modi is a leader not a dictator.  His first effort is to line up inward investment, which he is doing with considerable success.  As the benefits become apparent, from jobs to GDP growth, the challenge and logic of reducing bureaucracy will become less difficult. 

India’s economy is one of the few that clearly should show growth during this year.  Inflation is now declining and interest rates will follow.  No country will benefit more from lower oil prices than India, in my opinion. 

The Sensex Index is consolidating last year’s gains.  It is not cheap but India is a promising growth candidate and few national leaders have Modi’s economic knowledge and proven success.     

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