Think of a movie – our noble hero is crawl­ing through the desert, parched with thirst. Ahead of him a beautiful lake of cool water sparkles in the sand. Everyone knows the punchline – it’s a mirage, an illusion of water.

We are seeing a similar illusion – headlines promising a “Godzilla” El Niño that will end the California drought. There is a strong El Niño in the Pacific, but any promises that it will end California’s water problems are as much an illusion as that shimmering lake.

Science ‒ A Monster El Niño

Remember – timing is everything. El Niños bring wintertime rain and snow to California. Just because the El Niño is a mon­ster now in a good alignment to deliver rain­fall, doesn’t mean it will remain at this strength and configuration for the next six months.

Right now, the latest models project a giant, long-lasting El Niño. Some scientists are claiming it will be the strongest El Niño in his­tory. Headlines are glorifying its potential to end drought and warm the upcoming winter in the Midwest. Scientists are more cautious.

The El Niño is very strong – which scien­tifically means that area 3.4 in the Tropical Pacific is 1.5° C (2.7°F) warmer than aver­age. Roughly 90% of the models used by the world’s top 25 weather and oceanology agen­cies predict it will last through winter and most forecast it will remain strong. They also give an 85% chance that a weaker El Niño, will linger through spring.

What does this mean for North American weather?

To understand that, look at history. There have been seven El Niños since 1950 (when we finally had scientific observation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean) that have been strong events, exactly fitting the precise scientific definition. The following maps show their wintertime precipitation patterns. The maps are arranged from the greatest to the merely strong El Niños (see figures 3A-G)

David Fuller's view

Here is The Browning World Climate Bulletin.

Some respite for California appears likely and would certainly be welcome after the worst drought and fires for over a decade.  However, this El Niño will not solver the longer-term problem of depleted underground water tables (see yesterday’s article on this topic).