Any Greece Outcome Is Buy Signal for These European Managers
Comment of the Day

June 16 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Any Greece Outcome Is Buy Signal for These European Managers

Here is the opening of this topical report from Bloomberg:

Some of Europe’s strategists and largest investors are recommending loading up on the region’s equities once the Greek impasse ends -- no matter what the outcome.

The Euro Stoxx 50 Index has dropped to a four-month low, a gauge of volatility is near an all-time high versus that of the U.S., and officials are raising the prospect that Greece will leave the currency bloc. None of that is bad news to Pictet Asset Management’s Luca Paolini and AXA Investment Managers’ Gilles Guibout, who see a buying opportunity.

“We are pretty much waiting for almost any outcome to buy,” said Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet, which manages about $460 billion. “If there is a Grexit or a default, there will be a final selloff, which will be a good entry point for us. The fundamentals of QE and earnings growth would then reassert themselves.”

Favorite markets of AXA’s Guibout include Spain, where the IBEX 35 Index has trailed peers this year, and Italy, whose FTSE MIB Index has reached a three-month low.

“In the case of a really negative reaction, some opportunities could arise,” Guibout, a manager who helps oversee about $760 billion, said from Paris. “A massive correction in Italian financials could offer a nice opportunity. This trade has the most sensitivity to a potential rebound.”

David Fuller's view

Wise heads have long agreed that Greece should never have been in the EU, and they have been proved right.  The region would be stronger without Greece but either way, I agree that Mario Draghi’s QE will be good for most European stock markets which have become cheaper over the last two months.       

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