Miners balance out rough day for banks on ASX
Comment of the Day

May 11 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Miners balance out rough day for banks on ASX

This article by Max Mason for the Sydney Morning Herald may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

The bad performance of the banks on Monday was more or less balanced by a strong day for the big miners.

BHP Billiton lifted 1.7 per cent to $31.82 and Rio Tinto pushed 0.3 per cent higher to $58.62, while iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group gained 2.8 per cent to $2.57.

Miners were enjoying a strong run, thanks to a 30 per cent jump in the price of iron ore over the past weeks to $US61.40 ($77.76) a tonne, Metal Bulletin said.

However, UBS was forecasting iron ore to fall back to $US45 a tonne in the second half, thanks to increasing supply and China's economy continuing to soften.

This is more likely to affect the smaller miners, who have higher costs and lower-quality ore.

"We have back-calculated our company net present values to the current share price in order to determine what iron ore price the equity market is currently factoring in," UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said.

"Our analysis suggests an average implied price of $US51.50 per tonne, which suggests the market is still implying discount to spot."

Eoin Treacy's view

At The Chart Seminar in Sydney last year delegates were at pains to highlight that fact that just about all of them had positions in Australian banks because it had been the go-to sector since the resources sector peaked not least because the banks continue to have full franking on top of attractive dividends. 

The sector has outperformed since 2009 but has pulled back sharply over the last month and is now testing the relative uptrend and the upper side of the underlying congestion area. This is now an important point for Australia's banks since they are approaching potential areas of support.

Westpac is representative and will need to find support within the next $1 if the medium-term progression of higher reaction lows is to hold. 

On the other hand, the resources sector has been unloved for much of the last five years. It has trended lower against the wider market since 2011 but the recent rally has broken the sequence of lower rally highs. Considering the depth of the decline and degree of pessimism associated with the sector, there is potential that a medium-term low has been reached. 

Fortescue Metals has been hit hard by the decline in iron-ore prices but is now benefitting from the rebound experienced over the last month. 

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