Mike Lenhoff: Markets and protesters on the march - maybe another hawk too!
Comment of the Day

February 21 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Mike Lenhoff: Markets and protesters on the march - maybe another hawk too!

My thanks to Tony Smith of Brewin Dolphin for another good letter from his colleague Mike Lenhoff. Here is the opening:
Momentum is a powerful draw and is plainly visible on Wall Street. For the world that's watching, it is also visible in its sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. Emboldened by Tunisia and Egypt, the uprising against oppressive regimes has been gathering pace and the crackdown has turned nasty. But will this stop the heroes of a revolution? It's doubtful.

Meanwhile, the pressures on commodity prices and oil especially remain upward. For bond markets, which are oversold, the tensions mean a modest bout of consolidation but little more since they are also focusing on the improving economic news flow. In the US, the news flow has encouraged the Fed to do what the Bank of England couldn't do, namely revise up its forecast for the growth rate of domestic output for this year.

David Fuller's view Commodity price inflation remains the main headwind for this improved growth rate projection. Investors in high-growth developing (progressing) markets have been concerned about soaring prices for foods and other agriculture commodities over the last few months. To a lesser extent they have seen industrial metal prices increase, while monetary metals are resuming their overall upward trends. Now uprisings in the Middle East are exacerbating upward pressure on the price of crude oil, which increases risks for financial markets, while it persists.

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