Kuroda Leads BOJ to a Policy Crossroads as Pressures Intensify
Comment of the Day

July 29 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Kuroda Leads BOJ to a Policy Crossroads as Pressures Intensify

This article by Enda Curran and Toru Fujioka for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, 71, and his colleagues declared it was time to assess the impact of their policies, which have variously spurred strong criticism from bankers, bond dealers and some lawmakers and former BOJ executives. The next gathering, on Sept. 20-21, offers a chance to either provide greater evidence that the current framework should continue, head further into uncharted territory, or scale back.

Regardless of the decision, this isn’t where one of the world’s most aggressive central bankers wanted to be in his fourth year in office. In early 2013, he expressed confidence the BOJ had the power to ensure its 2 percent inflation target could be reached within about two years. This year, with the shock adoption of a negative interest rate policy backfiring through a welter of warnings from commercial banks, there’s a growing perception monetary policy is losing effectiveness.

Eoin Treacy's view

The Bank of Japan signalled today that they accept the conflict between the inflation bias of increasing money supply and the deflationary bias of negative interest rates. A rethink of their strategy is truly required but we do not yet know if they have the appetite for a helicopter money strategy which would surely create the inflation they desire. If Japan does indeed go down that route, it will likely offer a template for the ECB to follow a similar project.

The Yen confirmed its progression of lower rally highs today; stopping any prospect for additional weakness in its tracks. The ¥100 area continues to represent an area of resistance but a sustained move above 108 will be required to question the consistency of the overall pattern of Yen strength.

The Nikkei-225 shares a similar pattern with many Eurozone indices and is currently pressuring its medium-term progression of lower rally highs. The Index will need to sustain a move above 17,000 will be required to reassert medium-term demand dominance.

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration