Imara African Banking Compendium
Comment of the Day

March 26 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Imara African Banking Compendium

Thanks to a subscriber for this fascinating report which I'm sure will be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Crises of all shapes and sizes have wobbled global banking markets, yet African banks, protected by their relative level of immaturity (and in some cases exchange controls), in the main continue to grow, typically at a bare minimum of double the rate of GDP growth. African financial markets have predominantly benefited from firm commodity prices, increasing levels of FDI, remittances, and most importantly through increased domestic consumption and a growing nouveau riche middle class. On the corollary, and again, in the main, markets have been inefficient to price in the solidity in earnings and, future growth prospects, going forward, especially in such no-brainers as Kenya and Nigeria, where the overall bearish sentiment, will surely turn.

In this, our second African Banking Compendium, we have expanded our coverage to include Rwanda and Angola. The former is rapidly developing its domestic capital market to complement the larger, East African hub in Nairobi. East Africa remains particularly interesting and dynamic. Ever pioneering, penetration levels are being driven by the lower cost ‘Agency model' which is working well in mobilising cheap deposits. Kenya and the East African region have also pioneered the development of the now famous Mpesa telephony banking solution, which has been a case study for several other African countries to follow. Then of course, as big brother, Kenyan banks are, more recently, playing a key role in the development of banking systems in emerging oil rich oases Uganda and Southern Sudan. Factoring this into the equation, and notwithstanding robust domestic growth in Kenya's own economy, a re-rating is more than likely. Our sample is trading on a 2012 PER of 4.8x, which is the lowest for our sample. Enough said - fill your boots!

We have also taken a look into arguably, Africa's most exciting emerging financial markets giant, Angola. In just over a decade since the end of the civil war, the banking sector has grown exponentially, and boasted US$53bn worth of total assets at the end of September 2011 with US$32bn in deposits at the same date. Bear in mind that only 13.5% of the circa 20m Angolans have access to banking facilities of any sort, so the potential for cheap deposit mobilisation is massive. While the frenzy had died down following the commodities price crash in 2008/9, the momentum has started again and with foreign currency reserves at an all-time high of over US$25bn, the mood is decidedly optimistic. A board of directors was appointed to the Capital Markets Commission at the end of January, and we may soon see the beginning of a domestic capital market this year. We have a look at five of the largest banks in the country, which control roughly 80% of total assets.

Eoin Treacy's view It is not difficult to look at Africa and see incredible long-term potential. However, the shorter your time horizon the more difficult it becomes to make money from the story of economic development and the birth of an affluent middle class. Governance and liquidity will remain key concerns for years to come and both will need to be seen to improve to continue to encourage investment.

Nigeria's stock market is among the worst performers this year as it ranges in the region of the 2009 lows. It has held a very mild upward bias over the last few months and a sustained move below 20,000 would be required to question potential for additional upside. The Ireland listed Standard Africa Equity Fund bears a striking resemblance to the Nigeria index.

Kenya trended lower for more than a year but has stabilised above 2000. A sustained move below that level would be required to question recovery potential. The Guernsey listed Investec Pan African Fund shares a similar pattern. The UK listed African Opportunities Fund has also rallied to break a yearlong progression of lower rally highs.

The US and Virgin Islands listed Imara Africa Opportunities Fund has been ranging above $12 since October and a sustained move below that level would be required to question potential for additional higher to lateral ranging.

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