Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backs Bernanke QE3
Comment of the Day

February 06 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backs Bernanke QE3

This article by John Detrixhe and Cordell Eddings for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Procter & Gamble Co.'s failure to raise the price of Cascade dishwashing soap shows why investors are buying Treasuries at the lowest yields in history, giving the Federal Reserve more scope to boost the economy.

The world's largest consumer-products company rolled back prices after an 8 percent increase lost the firm 7 percentage points of market share. Kimberly-Clark Corp. started offering coupons on Huggies after resistance to the diapers' cost. Darden Restaurants Inc. raised prices at less than the inflation rate as patrons order more of Olive Garden's discounted stuffed rigatoni than it anticipated.

Low inflation has continued to boost demand for Treasuries, keeping rates low as President Barack Obama finances a $1.1 trillion budget deficit to boost an economy still growing at rates below the 20-year average. The Fed set an annual inflation target of 2 percent two weeks ago, and policy makers suggested they may conduct a third round of bond purchases under a policy known as quantitative easing.

“Any way you look at it, the Treasury market is still expecting rather benign inflation, and we will be in a low-rate environment for some time,” David Ader, head of U.S. government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said Feb. 1 in a telephone interview.

Eoin Treacy's view Truly multinational companies such as Procter & Gamble and Kimberly Clark have the breadth to focus their efforts on growth markets when conditions in their domestic market are challenging. In a stagnant US environment, these companies have retained their dividends and continue to expand in the world's growth markets. They remain ideally placed to benefit from the growth of global consumer culture.

Procter & Gamble's total revenue has remained stable since 2008. The USA is still its largest market but Asia is its fastest growing. The share continues to trade within a two-year range, albeit with a mild upward bias. A sustained move above $65 will be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Since 2009, growth in Kimberly Clark's Asian revenues offset declines in Europe so that total revenue remained stable. The share has found support in the region of the 200-day MA on successive occasion since early 2010. It hit a new all-time high in October and a sustained move below $70 would be required to begin to question medium-term potential for additional upside.

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