Email of the day (1)
Comment of the Day

February 06 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day (1)

on South Africa:
“Regarding Friday's commentary on South Africa, I think overseas investors should be a little more concerned about the quality of governance here than they appear to be. I speak as a UK retiree having lived here for the past 8 years. From all manner of sources it is plain to me that overall governance and leadership is deteriorating rapidly. The province of Limpopo has been declared bankrupt recently with debts of over 3 billion rand. Central government has to bail them out. The whole fabric of government administered departments here reek of corruption whether one considers the municipalities , departments of health, education, transport or the environment. You name it. On top of all this you have a leftward leaning ANC which this very week is talking of imposing a windfall tax on mining profits with further talk of wholesale nationalisation. If I were CEO of a mining company I would want to see a clear policy stretching 20 or so years into the future before investing another penny.

“My view, for what it is worth, is it is not a question of 'if' foreign investors withdraw their cash, it is a question of 'when'. We will then see what happens to the Rand.

“It pains me to say this because my wife I so enjoy living in this lovely country.”

Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for your informed comments. Corruption and mismanagement are distasteful in any country but perhaps even more so where such potential exists. Rumblings of nationalisation are non–trivial. If they ever come to fruition they would act as a negative catalyst for foreign investment. So far, the ANC has walked a fine line between populist politics and reasonably non-inflationary economic policy. If that ever changes, it could also act as a negative catalyst for investor interest.

One of South Africa's greatest strengths is the independence of its central bank and judiciary. This sets it apart for a large number of other emerging markets because it helps ensure contracts will be upheld and that monetary policy is free from too much political interference. If history is any guide, foreign investors are not overly worried about corruption provided it does not lead to inflation or greatly impede economic growth. In conjunction with the price action these two issues are most worth monitoring in my opinion.

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