Here's what you need to know about the fight over property tax cuts in the Texas Legislature
Comment of the Day

February 24 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Here's what you need to know about the fight over property tax cuts in the Texas Legislature

This article from the Texas Tribune may be of interest. Here is a section: 

Part of the fight will deal with whether to use less funds on property tax cuts and more on public schools, infrastructure and other needs. Democrats have their own ideas about what to do with the extra funds, including a $15,000 pay raise for Texas teachers, which would cost $12 billion over the next two years.

“With an unprecedented $33 billion budget surplus, we have at least 33 billion opportunities to improve our schools,” said state Rep. Trey Martinez Fischer, of San Antonio, head of the Texas House Democratic Caucus.

Eoin Treacy's view

I received an email from my bank this morning telling me my mortgage payment is falling $543 a month beginning in April because my property taxes are dropping. They also withheld too much for last year’s property taxes. As a result, I will also be getting a refund equivalent to 1.5 months of mortgage payments. Putting more money in the hands of consumers is going to boost inflation even more. It makes the Fed’s job even harder.

The question of whether this largesse is sustainable is for another day. The home sales figures that came out today surprised on the upside and were led by sales in the south of the USA. Some relief on mortgage rates in December and January may have contributed to that bounce, but property tax cuts directly influence how much house buyers can afford. That is likely to support demand for new builds in the south of the USA.

Green Brick Partners (Est P/E 5.02) is back testing the upper side of its two year range and beginning to demonstrate support.

Skyline Champion (Est P/E 9.97) is a major producer of manufactured homes. The share is firming within a yearlong range.   

Toll Brothers (Est 6.8) is also firming within its range. 

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