Gold in various currencies
Comment of the Day

May 23 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Gold in various currencies

David Fuller's view In writing about his two widely attended presentations in Australia earlier this month - at the prestigious ATAA and also during his sell-out TCS workshop in Sydney - Eoin reported that some investors were not that impressed by gold because in AUD terms (10-yr & 5-yr) it had not done much since the February 2009 peak. True and gold in AUD had been a late starter, not commencing its big upside move until mid-2005. This was because the Australian currency had been particularly strong, as Eoin pointed out. Nevertheless, gold was arguably in a secular bull market, even in AUD, because the major reaction lows were still rising. It also moved above some lateral resistance recently in rallying to its highest level since June 2010. Currently, gold would have to fall back beneath A$1300 to question seriously this medium to longer-term bullish hypothesis.

A similar pattern is evident for gold in NZD (10-yr & 5-yr), except the recent rally is more advanced with gold testing its 2009 peak. A close under NZ$1720 would now be required to question medium-term scope for an upward break.

Among other primarily resources currencies such as CAD (10-yr & 5-yr) and BRL (10-yr & 5-yr) gold has resumed its secular uptrend and a fall beneath this year's major reaction low for each of these currencies would be required to check momentum and interrupt the main consistency feature for these trends.

The same can be said for gold in the Latin American Dollar Index (10-yr & 5yr) and the Asian Dollar Index (10-yr & 5yr).

Among other well known currencies, gold in CHF (10-yr & 5yr) has been rangebound since falling back from the accelerated June 2010 peak but shows higher reaction lows within this pattern. In CNY (10yr & 5yr) it remains within a steeper and still very consistent uptrend since the 2008 low, and appears to be consolidating near the psychological R10,000 level. Gold has pushed to a new all-time high against EUR (10yr & 5yr) recently and would need to fall beneath €980 to check ranging upside momentum. Similarly, following a new high versus GBP (10yr & 5yr) it would need to fall beneath £835 to check upside momentum. Finally, gold in JPY (10yr & 5yr) remains very steady and a fall back beneath ¥120,000 would now be required to question uptrend consistency.

Lastly, the US dollar price of gold (10-yr, 5-yr & daily) is also in a consistent overall upward trend which ended with a weekly surge in late April, followed by the weekly key reversal shown on these charts as the USD rallied. Gold fell for four days before reaching a low at $1462.45 on 5th May, and then ranged in a consolidation before recovering half of this month's decline. I have been expecting further mean reversion towards the rising 200-day MA as gold corrects a temporarily overextended condition during this period of seasonal underperformance.

This additional pause could still take place, as it has with other overextensions which you can see most clearly on the 5-year chart above. If gold were to experience a near test of the MA in July it would be reassuring, maintaining the seasonal consistency and leading to a resumption of the uptrend in September. A nice, steady and consistent trend is easier to work with and therefore more profitable for most of us.

However, five months into the eleventh year of its secular bull market, gold could be entering the bandwagon phase of its move where supply is increasingly overwhelmed by demand. This would further steepen the uptrend. We also know that gold does best when it is appreciating against every fiat currency. We are nearly there.

Looking further ahead, I maintain that gold's secular bull market is unlikely to end until it is strangled by high interest rates.

(See also Eoin's comments on gold below.)

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