Email of the day on the implications of Yuan devaluation for global companies
Comment of the Day

August 20 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on the implications of Yuan devaluation for global companies

Surely a devaluation of the renmibi should be beneficial to non-Chinese companies that have their manufacturing facilities inside China. If they then export to the rest of the world they will earn other currencies and increase their profits. Which companies correspond to this scenario?

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for raising this point but your question is a difficult one to answer since global companies tend to have manufacturing sites in a number of countries rather than solely in China. Until about five years ago you could have easily answered that garment and small goods manufacturers would fit your criteria but this is no longer the case since lower margin businesses have already migrated at least part of their operations abroad. 

There are two types of foreign manufacturing operations in China, the first for export the second for the domestic market. The latter will be relatively unaffected by the devaluation while the former would benefit as you point out. The largest beneficiaries will be Chinese companies seeking to develop export markets. 

However I believe this misses the wider concern, which is that the Chinese revalued their currency not out of choice but necessity. This video from Seafarer Funds argues the opposite; that the Chinese made the decision from a position of strength and are complying with the market forces directive in order to gain greater influence at the IMF. It is possible that the timing of the decision was made at a time that would ensure the market opines the currency would be weaker. However 0he trend tells us that the decade long appreciation has been over for more than a year. 

The broader question then is to what extent the global economy is dependent on Chinese consumption of goods, services, commodities and energy. If the reaction to the move is any measure we have to conclude investors believe it is a significant factor.     

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