I am curious about the rationale behind taking the rough rice position, beyond the 1000D EMA which shows support in the region of $15. Despite El Niño, according to the FAO latest report July 7 (https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/), there is no supply/demand imbalance in spite of a lower 2022/2023 production. After a slight draw on stocks for the current harvest season, they are due to increase in 2023/2024 as well as worldwide production (same forecasts from the USDA https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/106909/rcs-23f.pdf?v=4882.7).

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. India is talking about restricting exports to control inflation. Pakistan’s ability to export was impacted by the floods last year. The heat in Texas this year may damage the crop even if this summer is wetter than the last few years. That suggests to me that predictions of a jump in supply are overly optimistic.