“Looking at the chart for STALSTOX, I'm perplexed about the sharp drop in the index between Dec., 2011 and June, 2012. Do you or the Collective have any further information about this index and how it is calculated?"
Eoin Treacy's view Thank you
for this question which others may also have an interest in. Following a search
through Bloomberg's newsfeed I found the table of suggestions from July
2012 and the most recent from February
5th . The poll includes suggestions from Bank of America, BMO, HSBC, JPMorgan,
Oppenheimer, UBS and Weeden. The results are then averaged. It is also notable
that not every bank makes recommendations for every survey.
If we cast our minds back to the summer, the prevailing mood among investors was that the Eurozone was about to break up and take a good portion of everyone's financial wealth with it. There were widespread reports that retail investors were fleeing stocks in record numbers for the perceived safety of Treasuries and cash.
In July HSBC recommended an 11% weighting in equities versus a still modest 23% today. At the other end of the scale JPMorgan's 60% recommendation hasn't changed. This data would be more satisfactory if it included more opinions but it does help to reflect the general perception of risk in equities, particularly over the medium to long term.