Email of the day - on the impact of currencies on investment returns
Comment of the Day

February 04 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day - on the impact of currencies on investment returns

I'm a new subscriber and am massively enjoying the content, in particular your video commentary, thank you. Perhaps it just hasn't been touched on in the last few weeks since I joined but I wanted to ask about your views on Sterling, from the point of view of a UK based investor. I used to be 50/50 allocated, GBP/USD. A few months after Brexit with cable close to 1.20 I figured it was potentially the opportunity of a lifetime to get longer Sterling (in particular given I'm UK based). I changed my balance to 80/20 in favour of Sterling. It took a few years for this to feel like the right decision, but I'm happy I did it. Given my reporting ccy is GBP I don't see a lot of that gain unless I dollarize my returns.

Specifically, I would appreciate your views on: 1. What is your outlook for cable heading into 2021? 2. Do you think that a large part of this trade is potentially continued dollar weakness (USD rarely doing well in risk-on mode)? 3. You mentioned in the 3Feb commentary that most central banks tend to fight appreciation of their own currency. Certainly, that is true for the ECB and the SNB. What about the BOE at present? 4. Given the bulk of my investments are NON-GBP (major US funds, Japan, China, Global) what strategy would you suggest for accessing these sectors if one wanted to keep a sterling bias?

Eoin Treacy's view

Thank you for these questions and I am delighted you are enjoying the service. Since you are a new subscriber you might not be aware, I do a long-term review of assets and themes on the first Friday of every month. My aim is to ensure there is a predictable timetable for when long-term investment themes are covered in the written commentary outside of the weekly Big Picture audios/videos.
Here is a link to the last one and the next one will be tomorrow.

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