Byron and Joe's Ten Surprises of 2023
Comment of the Day

January 05 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Byron and Joe's Ten Surprises of 2023

Thanks to a subscriber for this note which may be of interest. Here is a section:

2. The Federal Reserve remains in a tug-of-war with inflation, so it puts the word “pivot” on the shelf alongside the word “transitory.” The fed funds rate moves above the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and real interest rates turn positive, a rare phenomenon relative to the last decade.

3. While the Fed is successful in dampening inflation, it over-stays its time in restrictive territory. Margins are squeezed in a mild recession.

4. Despite Fed tightening, the market reaches a bottom by mid-year and begins a recovery comparable to 2009.

5. Every significant correction in the market has in the past been accompanied by a financial “accident.” Cryptocurrencies had a major correction and that proved not to be a systemic event. This time, Modern Monetary Theory is fully discredited because deficits have proven to be inflationary.

Eoin Treacy's view

I liked these surprises for the coming year better when they were more risqué. I think the above four are close to consensus. The Fed has no reason to cut rates and will not do so until they have one. That implies significantly higher unemployment.

Here are some alternative surprises:

Click HERE to subscribe to Fuller Treacy Money Back to top