David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Comment of the Day
Category - General

    On way back from Brics Summit in South Africa, Modi skeds a quick visit to Greece

    This article from the Hindustan Times may be of interest. Here is a section:

    Speculation about a Modi-Xi meeting has grown following a series of high-level contacts between India and China in recent weeks. Both National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and external affairs minister S Jaishankar have met top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi, who is currently the foreign minister, on the margins of multilateral gatherings in recent weeks.

    The joint statement issued after the latest meeting between Indian and Chinese military commanders on the standoff on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has also fuelled speculation about a Modi-Xi meeting in Johannesburg. The statement, issued after the talks held during August 13-14, had described the discussions as positive and constructive.

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    Bitcoin Calm Shatters With Sudden Tumble, Mass Liquidations

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    Crypto traders are now focusing on the $25,000 level for Bitcoin, below which options positioning suggests another cascade of liquidations could hit. 

    “With limited catalysts to push Bitcoin higher in the short term, a fall below $25,000 could put bears in charge, and if the rout in global risk assets continues, Bitcoin could face further downside,” said Josh Gilbert, market analyst at trading and investing firm eToro.

    A Wall Street Journal report citing documents that Elon Musk’s SpaceX has sold off its Bitcoin holdings after writing down $373 million also weighed on sentiment. It wasn’t clear from the Journal report when SpaceX had sold its Bitcoin.

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    Hurricane Hilary Intensifies as Storm Charts Path to California

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

    Still, Hilary is expected to bring widespread heavy rain to California and the US Southwest, raising risks of power outages, mudslides and flooding along with disruptions to ground transportation and air travel. The rain could start in the region as early as Saturday, with the worst of it arriving late Sunday into Monday.

    A wide area could get 2 to 4 inches, Douty said, which would be similar to the powerful winter storms that sometimes hit California and bring flooding. Desert communities, such as Palm Springs, as well as the many railroad lines that cross the area and pass through the mountains could also be imperiled, he said.

    Flood watches cover parts of California, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah, including Los Angeles, San Diego and Las Vegas. Flooding could be worst across Southern California, especially around San Diego, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services said in a statement.

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    China Needs to Engineer a Beautiful Deleveraging

    This article from Ray Dalio may be of interest. Here is a section:

    So, how do those who reduce the debt burdens do it? It primarily depends on whether the debt is in one’s own currency or a foreign currency (if it’s in one’s own currency like China’s debt is, it’s easier to manage) and whether it is held by one’s own citizens or foreigners (if it’s held by one’s own citizens like China’s debt is, it’s easier to manage)—though it is never easy. Given these circumstances, it also depends on how the restructuring is done. A well-done restructuring happens in a balanced way. I call that a “beautiful deleveraging.” It balances deflationary defaults/restructurings with inflationary printing of money/debt monetization to spread out the burden. The mechanics of this process are explained in the first chapter of the book linked above, so I won’t try to squeeze them in here.

    China is overdue in doing this, so in my opinion, it needs to follow this beautiful deleveraging process now because the debt-burdened balance sheets and burdensome debt service payments are freezing the economy, especially at the provincial level and most especially in some of the poorest provinces. One day the United States, Europe, and Japan will probably have to do their own deleveragings, which I expect to follow this process. Because the stabilities of orders (also known as “Mandates of Heaven”) in all countries are driven by the interrelated forces of 1) the credit/debt/economic dynamic, 2) the internal political dynamic, 3) the external geopolitical dynamic, 4) acts of nature (i.e., droughts, floods, and pandemics), and 5) human inventiveness (especially of new technologies), and because how this deleveraging process is handled has a big effect on the overall order or disorder of the system, it’s worth keeping in mind how this deleveraging dynamic works, which is why I’m passing along Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises to you now. I hope it’s of some help.

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    Global Yields Reach 15-Year Highs as Rate-Hike Worries Build

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

    Contributing to the selloff in the asset class, Japan — which has the developed world’s lowest interest rates thanks to its ultra-easy monetary policy — saw weak investor interest when selling 20-year notes Thursday.

    The yield on a Bloomberg index for total returns on global sovereign debt rose to 3.3% Wednesday, the highest since August 2008. Sovereign bonds worldwide have handed investors a loss of 1.2% this year, making the asset class the worst performer across Bloomberg’s major debt indexes. 

    It’s a reversal from the start of the year, when optimism that rate hikes were close to ending sent global bonds soaring, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate benchmark jumping more than 3% in January for its best opening month to a year on record. The gauge slid Wednesday to be down 0.1% for the year.

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    Jokowi Tempers Growth Outlook, Warns of Middle-Income Trap

    This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    Indonesian President Joko Widodo set a modest growth outlook next year as he underscores a narrowing window to get the country’s young population rich before it grows old.

    Gross domestic product is expected to grow 5.2% in 2024, Jokowi — as the president is known — said in his annual budget speech to parliament on Wednesday. That’s toward the lower end of a 5.1%-5.7% initial estimate.

    Fiscal deficit is projected to be 2.29% of GDP next year, in line with the government’s latest outlook for this year’s shortfall at 2.28%, lower than the figure in the 2023 budget. That’s still well below the legal limit of 3%.

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    Fed Saw Significant Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes

    This article may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

    The minutes also conveyed optimism about the outlook for the US economy as the Fed’s influential staff economists “no longer judged that the economy would enter a mild recession toward the end of the year.”

    Still, they expected economic growth over the next two years “would run below their estimate of potential output growth, leading to a small increase in the unemployment rate relative to its current level.”

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