Is the EV finally coming of age?
Comment of the Day

November 17 2016

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Is the EV finally coming of age?

This article by Scott Collie for Gizmag may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

One important breakthrough will be increasing the energy density of the battery through being able to cram more cells into the same volume of battery packs. The battery density doubled between 2009 and 2016, and this is definitely not the end. Just like with the technological development of the personal computer, there is something similar to a 'Moore's Law' in the battery development: currently, we recognize an annual improvement rate of 14 percent, which is quite immense."

Although 14 percent is significant, it's only just a start when it comes to battery technology. At the moment, electric cars make use of lithium-ion batteries, the type pioneered by the Tesla Roadster back in the mid-2000s. Schenk says there's plenty of improvement to come in lithium-ion tech, but greater leaps forward are in the pipe.

"New technologies, and especially those aimed at material-related improvements, plus ever-increasing production volumes leading to further price decreases, will determine the development stages of the next few years," Schenk says. "Within the next decade a major technological leap is expected with lithium-sulphur systems, and these are set to revolutionize costs and operating range as extraordinarily relevant buying criteria for electric vehicles."

Already, improvements to battery chemistry are starting to pay off, and people are starting to buy electric vehicles in greater numbers. Renault, one of the largest players in the European electric game, sold 23,087 electric cars in 2015 - a 49 percent increase on its 2014 numbers.

Eoin Treacy's view

Advances in battery technology have been slower to manifest than in microprocessors because of limitations in chemistry but perhaps more importantly because there has just not been enough incentive for companies to spend money on innovation. 

At a growth rate of 14% per annum it takes 5.3 years for the energy density of batteries to double. That might be slower than we might like but it is solid progress nonetheless. Because so much of the innovations in other sectors depend on the ability to store energy, advances in battery technology have substantial multiplier effects not least in the power and transportation sectors. This article from last June highlights the potential for electric car sales to grow at a compound rate of 20%-60% which would see the global fleet doubling much faster than battery technology improves. 

Lithium air and lithium sulphur based batteries both hold out promise of a pick-up in the pace of innovation which could usher in much quicker adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicle penetration. We are still talking about a decade rather than a year before these advances are realised but observable progress is being made all the time. 

 

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