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Comment of the Day

December 01 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

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This week's market action reveals some important developments.

David Fuller's view Italian 10-year bond yields (weekly & daily) accelerated to a peak in early November, fell back sharply, retested it on Monday and have fallen back once again. This suggests that a peak of at least medium-term significance has been seen and that sideways to lower ranging is likely.

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Spanish 10-year bond yields (weekly & daily) surged higher in October and November in a climactic move and have fallen back even faster. This indicates that a peak of at least medium-term significance has been established.

Australia AS51 Index (weekly & daily) saw a climactic low in August which has been successfully tested twice subsequently. This is consistent with base formation development and a break in the progression of higher reaction lows would be necessary to question this hypothesis.

Rough Rice (weekly & daily) fell precipitously from late October until late November before losing downside momentum in a region of previous support. Yesterday's upward dynamic confirms that a low of at least near-term significance has occurred and a close beneath $14 is now required to offset current scope for sideways to higher ranging. (Full disclosure - I still have a long position in rough rice.)

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