Most Recent Audio: 27 July 2021

David Fuller and Eoin Treacy's Free (Abbreviated)
Comment of the Day

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July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Short Recession Confirms Hotter but Shorter Expansion

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley. Here is a section:

NBER confirms the shortest recession in history at just 2 months. From the day the recession began last year, we've been ahead of the consensus with the progression of this new cycle staring with the v-shaped recovery. It's all happening faster than normal and that means rotations and changing leadership is happening faster too. Our mid cycle transition starting back in March should now make more sense with historical comparisons as it typically begins about 9- 12 months after the recession ends.

Eoin Treacy's view

The response to the pandemic by central banks was a break from the norm. They looked at a developing situation and anticipated trouble ahead. That succeeded in preventing a crash and eased the significant pressure from a cessation of economic activity. The V-shaped recovery now raises a significant question for central banks. How long will they allow the economy to run ahead before withdrawing liquidity.

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July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Apple Warns That Growth Will Slow After Record-Setting Sales

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Apple Inc. slipped as much as 2.9% in late trading after warning that sales growth may be slowing and supplies are getting tight, putting a damper on investor excitement following a record-setting third quarter.

The company said on a conference call Tuesday that supply constraints will affect the iPhone and iPad in the current quarter. Decelerating demand for services also will drive the slowdown. Apple declined to provide specific revenue forecasts, a practice it adopted during the pandemic.

The cautious remarks followed a sales gain of 36% in the third quarter, with revenue of $81.4 billion shattering Wall Street’s $73.8 billion estimate. But investors are sticking to a wait-and-see attitude. The parts shortages and a patchwork of Covid restrictions will continue to weigh on Apple’s business this year.

Eoin Treacy's view

It’s not that surprising that companies are coming through with lower sales forecasts. It was never going to be possible to sustain the pace of sales growth in non-single use items. People do not buy new phones or computers every quarter. The question for investors is at what level sales will settle as we come out of the worst of the pandemic.

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July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Email of the day on futures trading in Australia

July 27 2021

Commentary by Eoin Treacy