Search results
37 articles found
|
Bernard Tan: Sayonara Nippon December 10, 2010 It is well documented that the Japanese population is shrinking. The following chart shows that the population has shrunk by an average of 115,000 per year since peaking in 2005. What is not so well documented is the fact that the Japanese are also leaving the country in very significant numbers! The Japanese Statistics Bureau tracks the number of Japanese passport holders entering and leaving the country every month. The next chart shows the annual NET DEPARTURES from Japan since 2003. One can see that not only is the number of Japanese people falling by 115,000 per year, the number of Japanese actually living in Japan is also falling by a further 50-100,00 per year, thus bringing the annual erosion to approximately 200,000 per year. Since Japan has an annual GDP per capita of around JPY 3.8 million. That's a theoretical loss of annual GDP amounting to JPY 760 billion! Although it's a mere 0.16% of 2009's nominal GDP, it is a big deal in a country where nominal GDP growth has averaged -0.4% over the past 10 years! In fact, the actual damage is probably a lot worse that 0.16% because most of the people who leave are adults of economically productive age. |
Read article |
|
Can The Biggest Mobile Market Grow Even Bigger? October 7, 2010 What I find interesting is that the telco industry revenue per capita in the US is about 10x that of China while the GDP per Capita is 12x. One can easily see that if penetration rates in China were as high the United States, the two ratios would be a lot similar especially since many of China's potential new subscribers are low ARPU customers out in remote rural areas. China's GDP per capita has doubled in the past 4-5 years. If it were to do so again in the next 5 years, by 2015, China's GDP per capita would be $8,000. The telco industry in China is still adding north of 6 million subscribers per month. If this pace is sustained, it is also likely that by 2015, mobile penetration in China would also be close to 90%. If the relationship between GDP per capita and telco industry revenue per capita continues to hold, China's telco industry revenue could be over US$350 billion by 2015. If market shares remain the same, then China Mobile's revenue has the potential to grow to over US$200 billion from its current US$70 billion. |
Read article |
|
Bernard Tan: Still No Double Dip? September 23, 2010 On 21 Jul, 2010, I outlined my thoughts on the issue of double dip in an essay entitled "What Double Dip?". Almost 2 months on, I thought it would be appropriate to re-examine the data points used to make the case in the essay. However, I would like to introduce a new indicator that suggests that things are actually improving. The following chart shows the volume of interbank loans among US commercial banks, which has risen 34.2% since the last week of June 2010. This is a sign that US banks are beginning to trust each other again. It is still well below the $200-250 billion levels prior to the Eurozone crisis and the $400-500 billion ranges prior to the Lehman crisis. Nevertheless, its behaviour in July and August through September suggests healing, not deterioration. |
Read article |
|
Bernard Tan: A simple view of our economic prospects September 2, 2010 An economy is made up of government , corporations and households. Banks, although part of the corporations landscape, play a special role in providing credit and facilitating the money multiplier that is so crucial to modern economies. Everyone is worried about global economic prospects and investors are scouring every bit of the increasingly high-frequency data points to discern these prospects. Despite the torrent of data, there appears to be no clear consensus. I thought it might be useful to assess, in a simple manner, the state of the balance sheets of these crucial economic components in each key economic zone. Rather than ask "where is the economy headed?", it is much more useful to ask "what can we do about it?". And the latter question very much depends on the balance sheet of the country/zone in question. I find the results are quite revealing. |
Read article |
|
Bernard Tan: Global Rebalancing Well Underway August 6, 2010 The general consensus is that the US is suffering from chronic trade deficits and is frittering away its future wealth importing (& consuming) the production from the rest of the world. Not many people realise that the US is in fact one of the biggest exporters in the world. In 2009, its exports totalled US$1.05 trillion. Only 2 countries exported more - China (US$1.20 trillion) and Germany (US$1.12 trillion). The reputation for being "just a voracious consumer that produces nothing" comes from the size of its imports, which in 2009 totalled US$1.56 trillion! But the trade balance is already shifting. The chart below shows the monthly trade balance of the US (exports less imports). Note that the trade deficit actually peaked in late 2005/early 2006, well before the financial crisis and recession. This suggests that some structural adjustment in the US's role in the world economy had already begun more than 4 years ago. |
Read article |
|
More from Bernard Tan July 22, 2010 "Attached is Germany's latest PMI for Manufacturing and Services. Self explanatory. In the same spirit as yesterday's article "What Double Dip?"" |
Read article |
|
What Double Dip? July 21, 2010 The market chatter has been going on and on about a double dip for months now. So just to play devil's advocate, I thought I'd look for basic economic evidence that says OTHERWISE. First up, the US consumer. In the following chart that shows weekly chain store sales in the US, there is no conclusive signs of weakness. In fact, the sales levels are at all time highs, significantly above pre-Lehman crisis levels. The data is very current, the latest point being for the week ended 17 July, 2010. |
Read article |