Yields for stock market indices
Comment of the Day

November 24 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Yields for stock market indices

David Fuller's view November has been a poor month for stock market indices, so far, with many giving up a chunk of October's gains, and more in some instances, mainly within greater Europe.

With most commentators understandably focussing on Europe's sovereign debt crisis, sentiment has deteriorated with each down day for stock markets. "No way out" seems to be the prevailing view.

Can this be true for a debt crisis? Yes, in theory, but veteran subscribers will have observed that in markets the crowd's worst fears are seldom realised.

Discussing this with Eoin this morning, he said: The time to discount worst case scenarios is at the top of the market." In other words, when things seem almost too good to be true, they probably are.

Since it can be difficult to remain objective in an overextended bull trend, we need factual technical criteria, which cannot be dismissed with fanciful interpretation. The clearest and most timely technical evidence of risk in a maturing bull trend will be a large overextension relative to the rising 200-day moving average, signalling crowd euphoria.

Veteran subscribers will have seen this on many occasions. When it next occurs, we need to remember that wealth is realised in up markets.

More recently, we have seen downside overextensions relative to declining 200-day moving averages for many stock market indices, not least in early October. Those were at least partially corrected by last month's powerful rally.

However, this month's stock market decline is creating new oversold readings. We also have rising yields which are at historically attractive levels for many indices. They can become even more attractive in the event of another wave of panic selling but those who wait for worst case scenarios to be realised miss out more often than not. We need to remember that wealth is created in down markets.

Some will argue that dividends are vulnerable during an economic decline. This is true and among individual shares we need to be wary of the highest yields, especially if those companies are largely dependent on revenue generated in a weak domestic economy.

However, rising corporate profits, not least for the successful Autonomies, shows that many companies have adapted well to the slow growth environment in the west. Eoin has frequently reviewed these companies and we will continue to like them while their share prices trend to the left of rising 200-day moving averages.

Meanwhile, for price perspective relative to the MAs, plus current yields, here are the main stock market indices for individual countries and territories:

Asia - Pacific
Australia 5.00%, China 2.03%, Hong Kong 3.75%, India 1.60%, Indonesia 2.17%, Japan 2.68, Korea 1.59%, Malaysia 3.43%, Pakistan 6.15%, Philippines 3.36%, Singapore 4.12%, Taiwan 4.87%, Thailand 3.73% and Vietnam 4.84%.

Western Europe
Austria 4.33%, Belgium 4.96%, France 5.27%, Germany 4.43%, Ireland 2.24%, Luxembourg 4.19%, Netherlands 4.25%, Switzerland 2.81% and United Kingdom 4.24%.

Northern & Southern Europe
Denmark 1.50%, Finland 6.21%, Norway 5.74%, Sweden 4.75%, Cyprus 3.87%, Greece 4.79%, Italy 5.82%, Portugal 10.28 and Spain 6.20%.

Eastern Europe
Croatia 4.14%, Czech Republic 7.41%, Hungary 2.50%, Poland 4.34%, Russia 2.45%, Slovenia 4.01% and Turkey 3.06%.

Middle East & Africa
Bahrain 5.41%, Egypt 5.90%, Israel 4.08%, Kuwait 3.33%, Qatar 4.16%, Saudi Arabia 3.64%, Abu Dhabi 4.17%, Botswana 5.85%, Kenya 5.85%, Nigeria 4.23% and South Africa 3.05%.

North America
Canada 2.94% and United States 2.27%.

Latin America
Argentina 5.28%, Brazil 4.43%, Chile 2.8%, Colombia 2.42%, Mexico 1.49% and Peru 5.00%.

Conclusion - The number of attractive yields available confirms value in many stock markets and should help to cushion downside risk. However, stock market indices are retreating beneath their top formations. While short-term oversold conditions are evident, major stock markets led by the USA have yet to confirm support from the September to early-October lows. This will require clear upward dynamics and eventual breaks above the October to early-November highs. Where indices have broken beneath the year's earlier lows - this is mainly in Europe - downtrends have been reconfirmed and rebounds are required to question trend consistency.

In other words, it is still up to the bulls to prove that this cyclical bear market is ending or over.



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