Yang Liu on the Year of the Rabbit
David Fuller's view My
thanks to a subscriber for this CNBC
interview with the formidable chairman of Atlantis Investment Management,
ostensibly talking about the Year of the Rabbit, following a rather nice commercial
from UBS. And don't smirk - the Chinese calendar could never be more misleading
than all those gloomy economic forecasts from Wall Street last year.
My view - Yang Liu feels that China's inflation will peak in 1H 2011 and I have heard similar forecasts. That would be very good news for the stock market, allowing the monetary authorities to back off. Consequently she likes property, banks and insurance.
That is interesting but for resources inflation to peak we will need some bountiful crop yields. Even more importantly, we would need to see crude oil range rather than extend its overall uptrend. I think the cost of crude oil (Brent), coal and uranium will move higher this year.
Yang Liu did not mention consumer and social welfare stocks but her Atlantis China Healthcare Fund did well for the second consecutive year. It is the third largest position in my personal long-term equity portfolio.