WTI Rises to 14-Month High on U.S. Jobs Gain Amid Egypt Unrest
Comment of the Day

July 07 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

WTI Rises to 14-Month High on U.S. Jobs Gain Amid Egypt Unrest

This article by Mark Shenk for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
West Texas Intermediate crude rose to a 14-month high after data showed the U.S. added more jobs than forecast in June, bolstering optimism in the world's largest economy, and on concern that unrest in Egypt will escalate. WTI climbed as much as 1.3 percent in New York as the Labor Department said payrolls advanced by 195,000 workers. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast a 165,000 gain. Supporters and foes of former President Mohamed Mursi and Egyptian security forces clashed after the Muslim Brotherhood called for protests after his ouster. Brent oil in London increased more than WTI on a report that North Sea exports will fall next month.

“The payrolls number came in much better than expected,” said Bill O'Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $1.4 billion. “There might have been some initial excitement about the events in Egypt but it's important to remember that a coup is never a good thing. At least half of the population voted for the Islamists and are not at all pleased with what's taken place.”

Eoin Treacy's view WTI crude oil prices pushed through the psychological $100 level for the first time in a year yesterday and extended the advance today. This is particularly noteworthy since it is occurring against the background of significant strength in the US Dollar. The benefit of the doubt can be given to the upside in the absence of a clear downward dynamic and/or sustained move back below $99.

Major oil companies have been underperforming for the much of the year but may turn to outperformance if oil prices continue to improve. While just about all major oil companies found support in the last week, in the region of their 200-day MAs, US companies are noteworthy for having held progressions of higher reaction lows. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Conoco Philips, Marathon Oil, Hess, Murphy Oil and Occidental Petroleum have all at least bounced from the region of the 200-day MAs in the last week, sustaining their medium-term upward biases.

Back to top