Worry and opportunity
Comment of the Day

November 25 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Worry and opportunity

Eoin Treacy's view Investor anxiety levels are extremely high. Many people are openly talking about the breakup of the euro. Most commentators exhibit a morbid fascination with a worst case scenario and its repercussions. Banking sectors in the UK, Eurozone and the USA continue to deteriorate. Following the panic of 2008 the risk of contagion is also to the forefront of people's minds. Sovereign spreads remain at elevated levels. The appearance of political stagnation in Europe is worrying although we can be sure that negotiations behind the scenes are extremely active. Heightened volatility across asset classes has also been a cause of disaffection among investors.

The majority of stock markets, particularly in Europe have given up much of last month's gains. David pointed out yesterday how high the dividend yield on some indices has risen. There are understandable questions about the sustainability of dividends in the current environment, especially in the banking sector. However, each company needs to be judged on its individual merits.

This morning I performed a search of companies in the Europe Stoxx 600 Index which derive more than half their revenue from outside the Eurozone. There were 172 results. Unsurprisingly, the majority of companies are from European countries outside the Eurozone but there are a number of notable entries from within the Eurozone.

For example, Anglo/Dutch food and household products company, Unilever, derives 73% of its revenue from outside the Eurozone. It broke out an almost 2-year range in October and has been consolidating mostly above €24. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA today and a sustained move below €22.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional higher to lateral ranging.

Spanish listed Telefonica derives more than 60% of revenue from outside the EU. It currently yields 12.03%. The share has returned to test the 2008 low and is oversold in the short term. An upward dynamic would confirm the return of demand in this area.

Anheuser Busch Inbev, listed in Belgium has a yield of 1.87% and derives almost 81% of its revenue from outside the Eurozone. It has been ranging with a mild downward bias since hitting a new high late last year. Prices rallied three weeks ago to break the progression of lower rally highs and a sustained move below €40 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Sanofi, listed in France, is a European dividend aristocrat and yields 5.29%. The company derives 64% of its revenue from outside the Eurozone. The share has been largely rangebound since 2008 and is currently approaching the lower side. An upward dynamic would reconfirm support in the €45 area.

Fullermoney's view is that the Eurozone will not breakup. However even in a worst case scenario, Europe has a large number of companies leveraged to the growth of the global consumer. Some are outperforming even in the current environment, others have solid records of increasing dividends. Sentiment is extraordinarily bearish but that does not preclude the fact that crises create opportunities.

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