Work From Home And The Office Real Estate Apocalypse
Comment of the Day

October 19 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Work From Home And The Office Real Estate Apocalypse

This report from the NBER may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

We study the impact of remote work on the commercial office sector. We document large shifts in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents as firms shifted to remote work in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. We show that the pandemic has had large effects on both current and expected future cash flows for office buildings. Remote work also changes the risk premium on office real estate. We revalue the stock of New York City commercial office buildings taking into account pandemic-induced cash flow and discount rate effects. We find a 45% decline in office values in 2020 and 39% in the longer-run, the latter representing a $453 billion value destruction. Higher quality office buildings were somewhat buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower quality office buildings see much more dramatic swings. These valuation changes have repercussions for local public finances and financial sector stability.

Eoin Treacy's view

San Francisco commercial real estate occupancy is below 40% while New York and Los Angeles are just higher than that figure. This is a looming issue for the owners of vacant properties, many of whom are pension funds and other private investors. 

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