White-Sugar Premium at Nine-Month High as Demand Advances
Comment of the Day

June 24 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

White-Sugar Premium at Nine-Month High as Demand Advances

The premium for white sugar over the raw variety has climbed 41% this yr, touching the highest since Sept. on Wednesday, as demand for the refined sweetener picks up after an earlier drop in prices.

White-sugar futures on ICE Futures Europe in London  have climbed ~6% since reaching a six-yr low on June 17; Raw-sugar futures also fell to six-yr low in N.Y. last week

 “There is still strong demand from West Africa” for the refined product, Claudiu Covrig, senior agricultural analyst at Platts Kingsman in Lausanne, Switzerland, says by e-mail

Demand associated with Islamic Ramadan holiday that started this mo. also supporting price, he says

Better-than-expected refined imports in China in April and May from Thai and Guatemalan suppliers “have contributed”

Perception in mkt of lower availability of white sugar for Aug. delivery on ICE Futures Europe, he says

NOTE: Brazil’s Center-South produced 6.75m mt of sugar this season, down from 7.76m yr earlier, industry data showed  Tuesday

Eoin Treacy's view

White sugar has one of the most consistent downtrends in the commodity sector so it will be clear when the supply dominant environment changes. It has stabilised in the region of $350 over the last couple of weeks but a sustained move above $380 will be required to begin to question the consistency of the medium-term decline.

Raw Sugar has a similar pattern but is currently more overextended relative to the trend mean following a quicker decline since January. Potential for a reversionary rally has increased.

Robusta Coffee continues to rebound and a sustained move below $1800 will be needed required to question recovery potential.

Arabica Coffee has lost downward momentum and is firming from the 125¢ area. A sustained move below that level would be required to question current scope for additional upside and possible type-2 bottoming activity as taught at The Chart Seminar.

US traded cocoa has returned to test the 2014 high and a break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows would be required to check the advance beyond a brief pause.

London traded cocoa has been consolidating in the region of its 2014 peak since May and a sustained move below £2100 would be required to question potential for additional upside. 

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