Which shares are making new highs?
Comment of the Day

October 27 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Which shares are making new highs?

Eoin Treacy's view The vast majority of stock markets have rallied sharply since earlier this month. A number posted failed downside breaks a few weeks ago and as of today are breaking back up into their respective overhead trading ranges. Against such a background I thought it might be instructive to identify shares hitting new highs. At The Chart Seminar, we say that leaders tend to lead for reason and lead in both directions. Therefore ascertaining which shares and sectors are leading gives us an indication of which sectors bullish sentiment will focus on and will in future offer an indication of when a trend is maturing.

I performed a number of Chart Library High/Low filters this morning for the USA, UK, Europe, Australia, Canada, South Africa, Asia and Japan. This table of 136 results ranks companies making at least new 2-year highs by country, then by industry subgroup. Despite a similar sample space to the UK and Europe, the USA has by far the largest number of companies making new highs; more than a third of the total. Unsurprisingly, shares with defensive characteristics such as electric utilities, tobacco, REITs and insurance companies are reasonably well represented.

US healthcare companies continue to be among some of the best absolute and relative performers. Intuitive Surgical found support in the region of the 200-day MA in late August and hit a new all time high last week. Biogen mostly ranged from 2000 until March 2011 when it broke out. It consolidated above $80 for the last few months and hit a new high this week. A sustained move below $80 would be required to begin to question medium-term upside potential. Celgene has been ranging above $50 for much of the last 18-months and broke upwards two weeks ago. A sustained move below $60 would be required to question medium=-term scope for additional upside.

Alexion Pharmaceuticals also showed up in a review of the USA's leading shares on September 7th. The share is now overextended relative to the MA and the risk of a reversion towards the mean has increased.

Bristol-Myers Squibb also appeared in the September review. The share has been in a base formation for much of the last decade but hit a new 9-year high two weeks ago. It has so far held the majority of the advance and a sustained move below $28 would be required to challenge the base formation completion hypothesis.

I last reviewed discount retailers such as Costco and Dollar Tree Stores as well as a number of luxury US brands on October 12th. A number of these shares also appeared in today's list of new highs and my chart comments remain largely unchanged. McDonalds, Starbucks and Chipotle Mexican Grill also continue to hit new highs.

In Europe, fashion brand Inditex (listed in Spain) shares the commonality of similar US companies. It has been consolidating mostly above the 2007 peak since late last year and broke upwards to new highs three weeks ago. A sustained move below the MA, currently near €60 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Netherlands listed Vopak NA provides bulk storage facilities for the oil industry. The share lost momentum from late last year and has been ranging mostly above €30 since. It rebounded emphatically from the early August low and hit a new high this week. A sustained move below €35 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

In the UK, Next Plc has a similar pattern to Inditex above. In the healthcare sector, GlaxoSmithKline, a dividend aristocrat (5.43%), has posted a progression of higher reaction lows over the last two years and hit a new three-year high last week. Rolls Royce is also worthy of mention. The share spent much of the last year ranging mostly above 550p. It broke upwards emphatically three weeks ago and a sustained move below 650p would be required to check current scope for additional upside.

In the drinks sector Diageo, a dividend aristocrat (3.42%), rallied impressively from the August lows to hit a new high last week. SAB Miller has not yet hit a new high but looks more likely than not to achieve that feat.

In Canada and Australia there are a number of gold miners hitting new highs such as Silver Quest Resources and Regis Resources respectively. A number of Canadian pipeline companies have also returned to positions of absolute and relative outperformance. Enbridge (2.68%), Pembina Pipeline Income Fund (5.9%), TransCanada (3.8%) and AltaGas (4.59%) share a relatively similar pattern.

In conclusion, the pharmaceutical sector is a notable outperformer in the USA where a number of shares are completing lengthy base formations. Companies offering affordable products also appear to be thriving as are a considerable number of fashion and food retailers. A common theme of shares offering an attractive yield and/or exposure to growth of the global middle class is also evident.

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