Wheat Drops to 8-Month Low as Plains Snow to Ease Drought
Comment of the Day

February 25 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Wheat Drops to 8-Month Low as Plains Snow to Ease Drought

Given earlier concern over drought conditions in the Great Plains, this article from Bloomberg is timely news in terms of 2013's growth prospects for USA staple grains & beans. Here is the opening
Wheat dropped to an eight-month low on speculation that a snowstorm today in the U.S. Great Plains will help ease drought conditions before crops emerge from winter dormancy. Soybeans declined, while corn gained.

Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are under a blizzard warning, with some areas set to get as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) of snow, T-Storm Weather LLC said in a report today. While 91 percent of the central to northern Great Plains was under moderate to exceptional drought as of Feb. 19, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the dry conditions are ending with the second storm in a week, T-Storm Weather said.

"Heavy snowfall for the second time in a week is expected to bring much needed moisture to dormant winter-wheat crops in parched growing areas of the Plains," Jim Gerlach, the president of A/C Trading Co. in Fowler, Indiana, said in a report.

David Fuller's view The Great Plains snowfall is very good news because earlier drought conditions were a major threat to US grain and bean crops, not to mention global shortages. However, weather conditions need to remain generally favourable throughout the crop cycle. This has not happened in recent years, so the USA is statistically overdue for a reasonable harvest of staple grains and beans. However, at least two or three years of generally favourable crop cycles on a worldwide basis are required to rebuild surplus stockpiles and reduce the ongoing risk of shortages.

Soybeans reaffirmed resistance near $15 with a big downside key day reversal on Friday and follow through today. A close above $15 is necessary to offset scope for a further test of current range support in the $14 to $13.50 region.

Wheat has fallen sharply since encountering resistance near $750 last week and a close above that level would be required to offset current scope for a test of extensive underlying trading commencing near $7.

Corn is slightly steadier today following a persistent decline this month to test its January lows. A close above $7 is the minimum required to reaffirm more than temporary support in this region.

Rough rice has fallen back from its early-February highs over the last three days but requires a more significant decline to confirm significant resistance in this region.

The Continuous Commodity Index (weekly & daily) is temporarily over extended following this month's persistent decline which has breached the January low. An upward dynamic is required to check this slide beyond a brief pause.

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