The world still has a large buffer of wheat stockpiles, and top shipper Russia continues to export its own bumper crop to world markets. About 33 million tons of crops were shipped to global destinations under the pact, including about 17 million tons of corn and nine million tons of wheat. The top destination was China, followed by Spain, Turkey, Italy and the Netherlands.

Elsewhere, lack of rains and heat are threatening crops in parts of the US and southern Europe, increasing risks to food supplies. Still, wheat futures have fallen by almost half from the record reached in March last year to $7.10 a bushel. That compares with an average of $5.82 over the past 10 years.

Eoin Treacy's view

We are entering a new phase of the war because both Moscow and Odessa are now targets for missile/drone strikes. The efforts to allow Ukraine export grain were aimed at ensuring buyers would have enough to eat. That has also been a central point in how well Russia has secured support from regional governments. The obvious escalation would be to bomb Russia’s export facilities through the Black Sea to both level the playing field and increase the urgency of negotiations.