What's Driving the Coups Across Sub-Saharan Africa?
Comment of the Day

August 30 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

What's Driving the Coups Across Sub-Saharan Africa?

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

3. Why has West Africa been so prone to coups?
The events in Niger followed two coups each in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso and another in nearby Guinea. The leader of Sudan in the eastern Sahel was overthrown in 2021, the same year Chad’s military replaced its late president with his son, an army general. All these takeovers have been rooted in economic malaise and weak governance that have fed frustration among civilians and — in West Africa in particular — the spread of extremist violence. However, despite claims by the new strongmen that they are tackling insecurity, the number of people killed in the Sahel region surged in the first half of the year.  

Eoin Treacy's view

It’s impossible to walk across the Sahara during the summer. That trek is a lot easier in the autumn,  winter and spring. Political instability, vendetta settling mobs, human traffickers and religious extremists will all fuel migrant flows over the next 12 months as they are pushed northward. That’s all part of the unconventional war effort being propagated by Russia in the Sahel.

Europe not only needs to boost defense spending but border security is going to be a related urgent concern. The necessity of boosting defense outlays is undeniable even as finding money for it is challenging.
Leonardo broke out to new five-year highs in early August and continues to improve on that performance.
Rolls Royce is also continuing to extend its breakout from base formation.
Senior Plc is firming from the region of the 200-day MA as it tests the 2021 peak.
Safran is also firming but from the region of its pre-pandemic 2020 peak.
BAE Systems remains in a consistent medium-term trend.
Thales, Dassault Aviation and Rheinmetall are consolidating following last year’s surge.   

Babcock International jumped in July on improving perception that it will deliver ships on time to the Royal Navy. It is now pausing at the upper side of the three-year base formation. 

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