Visa Beats JPMorgan as Cards Wage War on Cash: Riskless Return
Comment of the Day

May 31 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Visa Beats JPMorgan as Cards Wage War on Cash: Riskless Return

This article by Dakin Campbell for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“Financial-dedicated investors have been looking for places to hide,” said Benjamin Hesse, who manages five financial-stock funds and leads a team of 15 analysts at Boston- based Fidelity Investments. “In general, the payment networks have seen their model improve the most in financial services.”

Erica Harvill, a Visa spokeswoman, JPMorgan's Joseph Evangelisti and MasterCard's James Issokson declined to comment.

The risk-adjusted return, which isn't annualized, is calculated by dividing total return by volatility, or the degree of daily price variation, giving a measure of income per unit of risk. A higher volatility means the price of an asset can swing dramatically in a short period, increasing the potential for unexpected losses.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has taken stakes in Visa and MasterCard as investment manager Todd Combs, who ran a hedge fund focused on financial stocks before joining Berkshire in 2010, builds his portfolio.

Eoin Treacy's view Credit card companies were notable for their relative strength as early as mid 2009, not least because they do not participate in the mortgage markets and were benefitting from lower funding costs without having to lower the rates they charge. (Also see Comment of the Day on August 26th 2011).

Visa had become quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it hit at least a near-term peak near $125 earlier this month. It has since entered a period of consolidation as it unwinds the overextension relative to the trend mean. A sustained move below it would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Mastercard is also currently in a process of mean reversion and the medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it continues to hold above the $370 area.

American Express fell more than either Visa or Mastercard during the crash and while it has had the greater percentage advance, the chart action has been less consistent. It is also in a process of mean reversion following an impressive rally in the 1 st quarter.

Discover Financial Services has a relatively similar pattern to the above shares and has also entered a process of mean reversion. .

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