It is impossible to say how far the Chinese would prepare for a full-scale war with the US in the scenario of a blockade. It’s estimated by Western experts that that it would need a minimum of four months to be ready for prime time. The dilemma for Chinese strategists is that, if there is to be a war with the US, they would be better off striking the first blow, probably by attacking American naval assets in the Indo-Pacific, exploiting the classic vulnerability of ships in port.

Eoin Treacy's view

Taiwan’s younger generation have no personal memory of the flood of refugees fleeing Communist rule. There has been a generational change and the continued success of the Democratic Party is a clear sign the population has no intention of ever recombining with China voluntarily. Therefore the are only two ways Taiwan can be encouraged to come back to the mainland fold.

The first is economic. Right now, Taiwan is a geopolitical jewel because of the strength of the semiconductor sector and the local ecosystem that supports it. However, the semiconductor sector has always been cyclical, capital intensive and low margin. That’s why companies were willing to stop competing for the prize of being the most efficient.