U.S. Wheat Exports Jump to 2-Year High; Soy Cancellations Soar
Comment of the Day

August 06 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

U.S. Wheat Exports Jump to 2-Year High; Soy Cancellations Soar

This article by Jeff Wilson for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here it is in full: 

Sales of wheat jumped to highest since July 2013 last week after prices fell to lowest in five weeks, government said Thursday in report.

Sales for delivery by May 31 rose to 838,463 mt in week ended July 30 from 699,418 week earlier, up from 590,871 year ago, USDA reported

?Sales last week included 394,600 t purchased for delivery to unknown destinations; other major buyers included Dominican Republic, Japan, Philippines and Yemen

“The sales to unknown are a little surprising, but not a sign of improved demand given the premium U.S. wheat is trading to the rest of the world,” Roy Huckabay, exec. Vp for Linn & Associates in Chicago, says in phone interview.

NOTE: Total sales for delivery before May 31 down 17% from yr ago, USDA data show

NOTE: USDA reported net sales reductions of 447,307 t of soybeans in marketing year that ends Aug. 31; biggest weekly cancellation since government began collecting data in 1990
China canceled 500,000 t, rolling 300,000 for delivery after Sept. 1, start of new marketing year: USDA

“The China bean sales the prior week was an obvious error” of reporting the timing of the delivery, says Huckabay.

Eoin Treacy's view

Soft commodities have been subject to a great deal of volatility over the last few years as commonality in the sector has been squeezed out by record crops. Individual commodities are now trading much more on their individual fundamentals than over the last decade which has led to increased variability in returns. 

Wheat has been trending lower since 2012. In that time it has posted some impressive short-term rallies which were ultimately followed by steep declines. The downtrend has lost momentum over the last year and wheat has found support this week in the region of 500¢. A sustained move below that level would be required to question potential for some additional steadying.

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