U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast Ahead of Shutdown
Comment of the Day

October 22 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

U.S. Payrolls Rise Less Than Forecast Ahead of Shutdown

Here are three opening paragraphs on this news from Bloomberg which helped to spark today's additional stock market rally
Employers in the U.S. added fewer workers to payrolls than projected in September, indicating the world's largest economy had little momentum heading into the 16-day federal government shutdown.

Stocks and Treasuries climbed as the report supported expectations that the Federal Reserve won't hurry to reduce monthly bond purchases aimed at spurring growth and employment. Progress in the labor market depends on how quickly the economy can bounce back from the loss of business and confidence caused by the budget battles in Washington.

"It's not like we're falling off a cliff, but there's a failure to get any spark in employment," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who correctly predicted the drop in the jobless rate. "Had this report come in strong, there was some possibility of the Fed tapering in December, but that possibility seems to be very small now," and a move is more likely next year, he said.

David Fuller's view Stock markets often do best in an environment where big central banks keep liquidity spigots wide open in an effort to increase GDP growth. This is discussed in more detail as part of my lengthy reply to the email below.

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