U.K. Teen Hit Primark Stays Tweet-Free Undercutting Foes
Comment of the Day

February 26 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

U.K. Teen Hit Primark Stays Tweet-Free Undercutting Foes

This article by Sarah Shannon for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Primark opened 19 stores last year as well as a 425,000 square-foot warehouse in Germany to service its growing northern European operation. Rivals like Topshop and Next Plc, Britain's second-largest clothing chain, have lately relied more on the lower-cost route of using the Web to enter new markets.

Arcadia Group Ltd., the owner of Topshop, said e-commerce sales climbed 22 percent last year as it expanded the business to 112 countries. Next says revenue for its online and catalog business increased 16 percent as it extended delivery to Russia and Latin America. At Asos Plc, an online-only U.K. fashion chain that adds 1,500 new items every week, sales rose 32 percent last year, driven by revenue from the U.S., where it increased digital marketing to attract younger shoppers.

Developing an online business isn't easy or cheap, according to Mark Hudson, a partner in the retail practice at consultants PricewaterhouseCoopers. It requires a supply chain flexible enough to handle the demands of large flagship stores alongside small online orders, and smart enough to give timely, accurate information about whether an item is in stock or not.

Eoin Treacy's view In an economic environment where the middle class has felt the pinch more than just about any other group, companies in the affordable fashion sector have flourished. This is particularly true in the UK, Europe and North America where spending power has been reduced as consumers have been forced to deal with higher taxes, lower wages and curtailed benefits. This sector is the antithesis of the luxury goods sector since it trades on the look rather than the substance of its products.

While Primark is growing quickly, Associated British Foods' other segments are growing equally well. The clothing segments has represented between 27 and 28.5% of revenues over the last three years. The share is an S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat (1.7%) and has at least paused between 1800p and 1900p which is a similar sized reaction lo that posted in January. A sustained move below 1800p would suggest a swifter reversion to the mean is underway.

Next Plc is a former member of the S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrats (2.44%) and has held a progression of higher reaction lows since 2011. While overbought in the short-term, a sustained move below 3700p would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

Hennes & Mauritz is also a former S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat (4.15%). The share has been confined to a volatile range since 2010 and will need to hold above SEK210 if the benefit of the doubt is to be given to scope for higher to lateral ranging.

Inditex (1.58%) hit a medium-term peak near €110 in December and continues to revert towards its mean. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

Asos broke out to new all-time highs in December and continues to consolidate its impressive rally above 2500p. A sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside.

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