Trump's Trade War a Win for Fertilizer If Farmers Seed More Corn
Comment of the Day

November 07 2018

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Trump's Trade War a Win for Fertilizer If Farmers Seed More Corn

This article by Jen Skerritt and Isis Almeida for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The feud between the U.S. and China that’s withered sales for American soybeans will probably result in farmers shifting acres to corn, said Chuck Magro, chief executive officer of Nutrien Ltd., the world’s top crop-nutrient supplier. Corn acres require about twice the amount of fertilizer and crop chemicals than soybeans, he said.

“The corn acres are worth more to companies like us,” Magro said in a telephone interview. “This could be actually a short- term win for us. It depends on what actually gets planted next year.”

The last time the U.S. saw a dramatic surge in corn acres was a decade ago after Congress approved the Renewable Fuels Standard, which expanded the mandate to blend ethanol into gasoline. That season, the corn area rose by more than 15 million acres, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data.

Eoin Treacy's view

The trade war is having a number of knock-on effects for a whole host of markets from iron-ore demand to copper and fertilisers. Since China is a major consumer of just about all commodities the outlook for its economy has a significant impact on demand. The potential for more corn plantings because reduced soy planting is a potentially an important catalyst for agricultural shares which have until recently been quite depressed.

Mosaic is in the process of breaking up out of a three-year base formation.

Nutrien (the result of merger between Potash Corp of Saskatchewan and Agrium) is back testing the upper side of its range.

Australia’s Incitec Pivot rebounded from the region of the trend mean to test its 2015 peak.

Israel chemicals has been leading the group higher and continues to hold its progression of higher reaction lows.

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