Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

July 24 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price action is a financial reality; the rest is noise

David Fuller's view A short-term look at Wall Street:

US 30-Yr Bond Yields (weekly & daily) recently looked as if they had entered a consolidation of gains since May, of at least short-term duration. However, they have steadied before even retracing the last temporarily climactic upside day on July 5th. They can still react, of course, but in a new upward trend, most of the surprises will also be to the upside. A close above this month's high at 3.72% would reaffirm the upward bias.

The Russell 2000 led the latest advance among major US Indices, looks quite overextended, and it is also tiring (weekly & daily). Today's softening is not a clear downward dynamic similar to what we saw on May 22nd but it is a warning that a corrective phase is not far off. The NASDAQ 100 (weekly & daily) was not lifted by Apple's slightly stronger than expected profits results reported after last night's close (weekly & daily). NDX needs a sustained push above 3100 to reaffirm the overall upward trend. Similarly, the Standard & Poors 500 Index is temporarily overextended and encountering resistance near 1700 (weekly & daily).

I maintain that Japan also has outstanding medium-term upside potential. However, it is currently correcting a short-term overbought condition (weekly & daily).

WTI Crude oil (weekly & daily) is encountering resistance near its range highs since 2011. I have felt that the latest rally was largely technical rather than fundamentally driven. Whatever, it needs to move back beneath $100 to reduce this energy cost headwind. Brent oil (weekly & daily) had a smaller rally and has rolled over well beneath the February highs. A close above $110 is now required to signal further upward pressure.

Gold in USD (weekly & daily) has seen a small downside key day reversal today. It is short-term overbought and a close above $1350 is required to indicate resumed strength rather than a partial retracement of recent gains.

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