Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

April 30 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price action is reality for your portfolio; the rest is noise

David Fuller's view Asean Indices remain generally firm led by Indonesia, Thailand and The Philippines. While these all remain overextended relative to their MAs, I would continue to give the upside the benefit of the doubt until either clear downward dynamics occur and / or the most recent in the sequence of higher reaction lows is broken. Malaysia and Singapore would need to close beneath 1600 and 3235 to delay current scope for sideways to higher ranging.

Australia's ASX200 Index (weekly 10-Yr, 5-Yr & daily) has extended last week's push back above 5000, reaching its highest level since September 2008 today. This looks like a successful consolidation of this year's push above lateral highs dating back to 2009, near the psychological 5000 level. We may see further ranging near current levels over the near term as the ASX200 is still somewhat overextended relative to its 200-day MA. However, a close beneath 4880 remains necessary to delay significantly higher levels supported by underlying trading. This outlook continues to be reinforced by the bullish performance of Australia's Financial Index.

Italy's S&P MIB Index (weekly & daily) fell sharply following its key day reversal at 18,000 on 30th January. However, it found support near the 4Q 2012 lows and has rallied with the formation of a new coalition government and the additional decline in its 10-year government bond yield. Spain (weekly & daily) has been similarly helped by its latest bond yield decline. The outlook is for sideways to eventually higher ranging, provided Italy's S&P MIB remains above 15,000 and Spain's IBEX holds above 7720.

Germany's DAX (weekly & daily) is a total return Index which found good support near its rising MA last week and rallied sharply. Some temporary resistance is likely to be encountered near the March high and the psychological 8000 level but a close beneath 7410 would be necessary to question seriously the overall upward trend.

The UK's FTSE 100 Index (weekly 10-Yr, 5-Yr & daily) broke decisively above its broad range since late 2009 in January of this year. Since mid-March it has been consolidating gains in a ranging process which is also reducing its overextension relative to the rising MA. While this short-term pattern is likely to be extended for a while longer, only a close beneath 6200 for more than a day or two would further delay an eventual upward break and successful challenge of the 2007 peaks, supported by the build-up of underlying trading over the last three years.

Back to top