Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

April 25 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Price charts signal changes in investment decisions which alter money flows.

New Zealand remains a strong stock market with an extremely consistent uptrend since last July, and it still yields 4.65%. The country's financial sector index is even stronger and these are backed by a firm currency, shown here against the US dollar. However, the stock market indices are overextended relative to their 200-day moving averages and a clear downward dynamic on these first two charts would indicate the onset of a temporary reaction and consolidation.

Japan's Nikkei 225 (weekly & daily), Topix and TSE2 have all reaffirmed their uptrends this week. Breaks in the progressions of higher reaction lows, best seen on the daily charts, will be required to indicate more than a brief pause and consolidation within these strong uptrends which commenced in mid-November.

Singapore (weekly & daily) had a strong day yesterday and pushed up out of its recent consolidation range today, while also breaking above the November 2010 high. A close beneath 3260 would be required to indicate an upside failure.

Australia's ASX200 Index (weekly & daily) has been consolidating earlier gains on either side of the psychological 5000 level, reducing its earlier overextension relative to the 200-day MA in the process. A close beneath 4880 would be required to indicate a deeper correction before this bull market moves higher. This move continues to be led by Australia's Financial Index.

Europe's STOXX 50 Index (weekly & daily) has rallied sharply within this year's trading range, following a downside failure last week. The Euro STOXX Bank Index (weekly & daily) did not reach a new reaction low last week although it has underperformed since the late January high. This week's action is encouraging and both Indices would have to close beneath this month's earlier lows to offset recovery scope.

Gold, silver and platinum had good upside moves today. We will not know if this month's lows will hold until we see the first clear reaction following the current rally. However, a higher reaction low is possible because this rally was preceded by a climactic sell off. Meanwhile, closes beneath today's lows will be required to indicate that the recovery is faltering. Palladium had a smaller rally today but has shown comparative relative strength during the overall decline.

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index (weekly & daily) also had a climactic sell off after a lengthy decline and is very overextended relative to its MA. A new closing low would be required to offset current scope for at least a further technical rally.

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