Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

April 18 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Price changes can alert us to potential changes in the supply vs demand balance, before they become widely recognised by the crowd.

Relative strength often occurs where bank and financial indices are outperforming their broader national market. Conversely, when bank and financial indices revert to persistent underperformance, particularly following a significant market advance, it is often an early indication that economic conditions are deteriorating.

Singapore's Financial Index (monthly & 5-year weekly) is still outperforming the Straits Times Index (monthly & 5-year weekly), although both are a little overextended relative to their rising 200-day moving averages. Both continue to show relative strength during a global corrective phase within the overall bull market environment which commenced in 2009. This was only significantly interrupted during 2011 and clear downward dynamics would be required to question Singapore's relative outperformance.

India (monthly, 5-year weekly & daily) could not be more different from Singapore, including a considerably more volatile stock market. However, it has firmed recently, as I mentioned on Tuesday, helped by the pullback in Brent oil. Moreover, India's Banks Index (historic monthly, 5-year weekly & daily), which I did not show previously, is leading the current rally. While the present global corrective phase is likely to limit further near-term gains, if India's indices can remain above this month's earlier lows for the duration of the global stock market correction, that would bode well for its medium-term outlook.

Meanwhile, this global correction could easily persist well into May, if not somewhat longer.

Australia's Financial Index (monthly & weekly) is clearly outperforming the ASX200 Index (monthly & weekly). However, both are temporarily overextended relative to their MAs and may struggle to hold the most recent of these gains during the remainder of this global corrective phase. Nevertheless, the medium-term outlook remains attractive.

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