Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

March 20 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Price charts enable investors to efficiently monitor all markets which interest them.

China's Shanghai A-Shares Index (weekly & daily) had a big upward dynamic on the daily chart today, which is additionally important because it occurred following a pullback which was testing the 200-day moving average, shown on the weekly graph. However, sustained upside follow through is required to confirm strong support near yesterday's low. Also, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (weekly & daily) had a small upside key day reversal near an area of potential support around the psychological 22,000 level and more importantly, from the upper side of last November's trading range. Consequently, a close beneath today's low is now required to offset recovery scope and reaffirm the short-term corrective downtrend.

A point to keep in mind is that China's stock market is normally policy driven, within a command economy. A current social problem in China is the wealth disparity between the country's rulers and privileged 'princelings', relative to everyone else. One logical way for China's new and politically powerful leader, Xi Jinping, to address growing resentment over inequality, I suggest, is to encourage widespread participation in a recovering stock market. Shares in China are currently cheaper and more politically acceptable than property speculation which risks another bubble at today's valuations. In fact, following last December's low for China's main A-share Index (SHASHR) shown above, and given its still conservative valuations today, a stock market recovery with public participation should be a virtuous circle.

Interestingly, a number of other important stock markets in democratically ruled countries and regions have seldom been more policy driven, with the help of quantitative easing (QE) than we have seen in the last few years. These include the USA, UK, Europe, and much more recently, Japan.

The USA's S&P 500 (weekly & daily) continues to challenge its historic (numerical) highs, levels already exceeded by Transports and the Dow. These indices are temporarily overextended but could easily move somewhat higher, with the help of QE, before mean reversion towards their 200-day MAs occurs.

The UK's FTSE 100's breakout (weekly & daily) following years or ranging is extremely significant and all it needs to do is consolidate above 6,000 to keep the overall bullish pattern intact, prior to a successful challenge of the 2007 highs.

Europe clearly remains a soft spot but the Euro STOXX 50 (weekly & daily) resembles an extended base. If it can hold within this year's range and above the MA, an upside breakout and challenge of lateral resistance near 3,000 should follow within the next few months.

Japan's impressive advance since mid-November (weekly & daily) shows a little more two-way action with this year's ranges but nevertheless remains strongly demand driven. This will eventually change when the upward breaks are less strong and / or the downward reactions next become larger. However, given the low starting point following years of underinvestment in Japan, not to mention the overdue new stimulative policies introduced by Shinzo Abe, this upside breakout looks like the first step in a bull market that should clear the 2006-2007 highs within the medium term, defined by Fullermoney as anything from several months to approximately two years.

So far, most of the asymmetrical technical action within what I have called a corrective phase since the beginning of February resembles a bull market consolidation. This is in sharp contrast to the routs which commenced in 1999 ('old economy') and 2000 (tech), not to mention the synchronised meltdown in 2008. Corrections have been smaller subsequently, but we cannot be certain that the current corrective phase is over until a majority of stock market indices resume their overall upward trends.

Meanwhile, over the last few weeks we have gradually seen more indices break their often persistent advances since approximately mid-November. We should also recall that even with market consolidations the sharpest setbacks usually occur during the latter stages, as more people recognise an overall loss of upside momentum.

Nevertheless, stock markets have so far not been moving downwards in tandem during the reaction and consolidation phase which commenced in February. This is a significant change since the synchronised 'risk off'' banality that we were still seeing and hearing about last year, albeit in a less dramatic fashion than the during the 2008 to 2011 period.

Meanwhile, monetary policy, which Fullermoney regards as the most important fundamental influence, remains a powerful tailwind for many stock markets.

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