Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

March 19 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Price action reflects the balance of supply versus demand, which reveals a story of fear and greed when viewed on charts.

Euro STOXX Banks (weekly & daily) has resumed its correction with today's downward break which is now eroding support from the September through November range. Banks are often a lead indicator and while the EU-imposed Cyprus Deposit Levy attempt and related contagion fears are responsible for today's weakness, a close back above the mid-point of the previous range near 114.40 is currently the minimum required to indicate that confidence is returning.

The top performing Asean Indices are losing their uptrend consistency following overextended advances relative to their 200-day moving averages, as you can see from these charts for The Philippines (weekly & daily) which has fallen sharply relative to this year's additional advance; Thailand (weekly & daily) which had been the strongest but had a large downside key day reversal today, and Indonesia (weekly & daily) which is less overextended but has lost momentum over the last week.

Malaysia (weekly & daily) has underperformed other Asean markets for a lengthy period, albeit by remaining range bound. A close beneath 1600 for more than two or three days would indicate an erosion of previous support. Singapore (weekly & daily) has lost momentum near its November 2010 peak and needs a close above 3325 to reaffirm the overall upward trend.

For a number of years Asean markets have tended to retain relative strength until the latter portion of global stock market setbacks. Consequently, the recent loss of uptrend consistency by The Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia following several months of persistent gains may suggest that the global reaction is more than half over. However, most of the selling tends to occur in the latter stages of corrective phases, as the loss of form becomes more apparent.

US indices (weekly & daily) pared today's losses in late trading after the ECB reaffirmed its commitment to provide liquidity. Nevertheless, similar overextensions relative to the MA over the last four years were all followed by mean reversion. Therefore it would be surprising if Wall Street did not experience a pullback.

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