Today's interesting charts
David Fuller's view Price
action reflects the balance of supply versus demand, which reveals a story of
fear and greed when viewed on charts.
Euro
STOXX Banks (weekly & daily)
has resumed its correction with today's downward break which is now eroding
support from the September through November range. Banks are often a lead indicator
and while the EU-imposed Cyprus Deposit Levy attempt and related contagion fears
are responsible for today's weakness, a close back above the mid-point of the
previous range near 114.40 is currently the minimum required to indicate that
confidence is returning.
The
top performing Asean Indices are losing their uptrend consistency following
overextended advances relative to their 200-day moving averages, as you can
see from these charts for The Philippines (weekly
& daily) which has fallen sharply
relative to this year's additional advance; Thailand (weekly
& daily) which had been the
strongest but had a large downside key day reversal today, and Indonesia (weekly
& daily) which is less overextended
but has lost momentum over the last week.
Malaysia
(weekly & daily)
has underperformed other Asean markets for a lengthy period, albeit by remaining
range bound. A close beneath 1600 for more than two or three days would indicate
an erosion of previous support. Singapore (weekly
& daily) has lost momentum near
its November 2010 peak and needs a close above 3325 to reaffirm the overall
upward trend.
For
a number of years Asean markets have tended to retain relative strength until
the latter portion of global stock market setbacks. Consequently, the recent
loss of uptrend consistency by The Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia following
several months of persistent gains may suggest that the global reaction is more
than half over. However, most of the selling tends to occur in the latter stages
of corrective phases, as the loss of form becomes more apparent.
US indices
(weekly & daily)
pared today's losses in late trading after the ECB reaffirmed its commitment
to provide liquidity. Nevertheless, similar overextensions relative to the MA
over the last four years were all followed by mean reversion. Therefore it would
be surprising if Wall Street did not experience a pullback.