Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

February 13 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

David Fuller's view Price action, seen on charts, is the investor's best defence against wayward market opinions.

If China's economy is now improving along with global GDP growth, which I believe is the case, albeit gradually, then industrial metal prices should also be firming after several years of lacklustre performance.

Lead LME 3M (weekly & daily) appears to have developed a base formation since September 2011 and completed this pattern in recent months. However, given previous resistance in this region, the rising lows since mid 2012 need to hold as a close beneath $2250 would negate the base completion hypothesis. Conversely, a sustained push above $2500 would reaffirm upward scope.

Copper CMX (weekly & daily) has encountered strong resistance near 400¢ since 2006, except for a few months during 2011. However, the current pattern since October of that year will continues to look like a gradually developing base, provided the lows continue to rise. Currently, this pattern shows the potential for a successful test of 400¢ later this year.

Tin LME 3M (weekly & daily) rallied strongly with stock markets from November 2012, to test lateral resistance near the psychological $25,000 level. Unlike the last test of this region two years ago, there has been no clear downward dynamic to signal a reversal of the advance. Therefore, until or unless that happens, I would give the benefit of the doubt to a successful consolidation of recent gains over the next several months, prior to a sustained break above the recent highs.

Zinc LME 3M has been a laggard (weekly & daily) in the sector, although it has rallied well since mid-January, clearing the last three highs in the process. Consequently, and in line with other metals, this pattern looks increasingly like a base formation in the latter stages of development. If so, the next important test will be to see how successfully it can challenge higher trading last established between late 2009 and most of 2011.

Aluminium LME 3M is the laggard in this sector (weekly & daily). Nevertheless, it has shown evidence of support building since mid-2012. Therefore I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt, provided the recent reaction lows near $2030 continue to hold.

Nickel LME 3M has a similar pattern to Aluminium above (weekly & daily), albeit slightly more advanced. Currently, it appears to be consolidating beneath the October 2012 high and a successful break above $19,000 would reaffirm upward scope.

(See also Eoin's comments on metals and mining shares below.)

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