Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

October 30 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

Price charts show you precisely what is happening in the markets, not least regarding money flows.

David Fuller's view Indonesia (weekly & daily), so often a strong relative performer, reached another new all-time high today. It is somewhat overextended relative to its 200-day moving average and this has periodically led to mean reversion in the past. Currently, a close beneath 4300 would be required to check upside momentum, indicate an upside failure and suggest that a corrective phase had begun. Among global and regional factors, a further setback on Wall Street would represent a headwind while a stronger performance from China would constitute a tailwind.

Malaysia (weekly & daily), the Philippines (weekly & daily) and Thailand (weekly & daily) all have very similar patterns. This commonality in strength bodes well for the medium term. Breaks in the progressions of higher reaction lows would be required to question sideways to higher momentum.

Singapore (weekly & daily) continues to underperform its ASEAN sisters above and saw an upside failure earlier this month. A close beneath 3000 which persisted for more than a day or two would indicate a further loss of form.

China's A-Shares (weekly & daily) have fallen back from their September rally high, further delaying recovery prospects. While at least temporary support is likely to be encountered from the late-September low, further upward dynamics are required to reaffirm that a support building process is actually underway prior to a more significant recovery.

India's Sensex (weekly & daily) had a downside key day reversal on 5th October and it resumed its setback today on news that the RBI had disappointed investors by deciding to keep short-term interest rates on hold due to lingering inflationary pressures. An upward dynamic is now required to check near-term scope for some additional easing towards the rising MA before underlying trading supports a test of the 2008 and 2010 peaks.

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