Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

February 24 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

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Currently, there is little upward pressure on 10-year bond yields for Eurozone countries regarded as most susceptible to Greek contagion - Italy, Portugal and Spain. However, Portuguese rates have steadied above their 200-day MA.

China's Shanghai A-Shares Index (weekly & daily) has corrected its oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA while recording its biggest rally since the January to April 2011 gains. This recovery has broken last year's downtrend, increasing the possibility that a major low has been established above the 4-Q 2008 to 1Q 2009 base formation. A downward dynamic, similar to what you can see in mid-November on the daily graph, is required to check upside momentum beyond a brief pause.

Japan's Topix Banks Index (weekly & daily) has resumed its recovery following a brief pause and also broken above the June-July 2011 rally high. It would have to fall back beneath the MA, which is beginning to rise, to question current scope for a major recovery. The 2nd Section Index (weekly & daily), which often leads, is becoming susceptible to some reaction and consolidation following its accelerated recovery to test the upward boundary of what looks increasingly like an extended (Type-3 as taught at TCS) base formation. Both the Nikkei (weekly & daily) and Topix (weekly & daily) have extended rallies back above their MAs although these gains are not yet exceptional relative to other rallies seen since 2009. However, the difference this time is the BoJ's inflation target. This has weakened the yen, shown inversely against the USD (weekly & daily). It has long been a Fullermoney contention that a change in BoJ policy towards the yen, enabling it to weaken and therefore boost export earnings, was a precondition for a bull market in Japanese equities.

Ireland's ISEQ (weekly & daily) has extended its recovery above the 2011 highs and also the MA which has now turned upwards. This increases the possibility that the pattern since 2009 is an extended base formation, still under development, which will eventually support a major recovery. The daily chart shows a staircase uptrend of small, equal-sized steps, one above the other. When this sequence of higher reaction lows is eventually broken a correction will have commenced.

Euro STOXX Bank Index (weekly & daily) is a key indicator for the Eurozone. Following this year's rally from the low it has paused near the former highs since last September. A sustained break above 120 is required to reaffirm improving confidence in this sector. A fascinating statistic from colleague and tireless researcher, Jackson Wong: the combined market capitalisation of this Index's 31 constituents is less than the current capitalisation of Apple.

(See also Tuesday's chart review.)

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