Today's interesting charts
Comment of the Day

January 30 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Today's interesting charts

After six weeks to the upside for so-called risk assets, this is a good time to review some key price charts:
US 30-year T-Bond futures (weekly & daily) found support last Thursday near the lower side of their narrow range since November and appear likely to test the upper boundary extending back to September where at least temporary resistance can be anticipated.

Italian 10-year Bond Yields (weekly & daily) established an accelerated (Type-1 as taught at TCS) peak in November and subsequent rally attempts were rebuffed by resistance above 7%. However, the latest decline looks temporarily overextended and some support is being encountered near the early-December reaction low. Nevertheless, overhead trading should now limit upward scope to some right-hand top formation extension prior to a further decline in coming months.

Spanish 10-year Bond Yields (weekly & daily) are similar to those of Italy above and while we can expect some temporary support in the 5% region, a break in the progression of lower rally highs would be required to reaffirm that this is still a major floor.

Indonesia's JCI Index (weekly & daily) saw a downward dynamic today reaffirming that resistance is still being encountered above the psychological 4000 level, first signalled by the big weekly key reversal last August. However, the chart shows a build-up of underlying support which should cushion downside risk and a sustained breach of the 200-day moving average would be required to question medium-term scope for sideways to higher ranging.

India's Sensex (weekly & daily) is temporarily overbought following its rally to test the declining MA and today's downward dynamic suggests that a reaction and consolidation has commenced. Support in the 16,000 region needs to be reaffirmed, followed by a higher high on a move above 18,000 in coming weeks to break the medium-term downward trend.

Germany's DAX Index (weekly & daily) is short-term overbought and likely to encounter some resistance in the 6500 region leading to a consolidation of recent strong gains. However, the chart now shows more than enough underlying support to cushion downward risk, leading to another higher reaction low and additional gains in coming months.

Euro STOXX Banks Index (weekly & daily) had a good rebound after encountering support near the range lows on 10th January and rallying back above the last two highs dating back to early December. A reaction appears to have commenced today and for the overall pattern to remain consistent with a base building phase, a higher reaction low will be required, followed by a push above 120.

Soybeans (weekly & daily) encountered resistance beneath the January third high and also the declining MA last week. Today's downward dynamic indicates susceptibility to a further retracement of yearend gains and a close above $12.33 would be required to question this outlook.
Back to top