David Fuller's view Copper (CMX) (weekly & daily) plunged in September, completing a large Type-3 top formation as taught at The Chart Seminar. However, it found support above its 2010 lows earlier this month and the sharp rebound on Friday and also today provides evidence that a new base formation may be developing. A close beneath the psychological $3 level would now be required to offset this possibility and reaffirm the downtrend.

Tin (LME) (weekly & daily) surged above its rising 200-day MA to reach peaks in February and April before commencing a significant downtrend. In September it was briefly even more overextended relative to its MA than at the April high. The subsequent sharp rebound indicated that a low of at least medium-term significance had been reached and over half of the recent gains were maintained during this month's brief consolidation. A close beneath 20,600 would now be required to question current scope for sideways to higher ranging.

Crude oil (WTI) (weekly & daily) - In just over three weeks crude oil fell to a new low for the year; registered a downside failure and has now broken above the upper side of its trading range since the early August low. By recording the biggest rally since the April peak and also clearing the September rally high, this contract has broken its medium-term downtrend. This suggests that an important low of probably medium-term significance has been reached. While some consolidation of these gains is likely before long, a close beneath $84 would now be required to negate sideways to higher scope and instead, confirm an upside failure and lower phase of ranging.


Rough Rice (CBOT) (weekly & daily) arguably completed a massive Type-3 base formation in July. Following a recovery high in September, a sharp correction occurred in line with the global sell-off for commodities. However, support was encountered above the rising MA and the upside weekly key reversal suggests that rice is building what we refer to at TCS as the first step above the base formation. A close beneath 15.50 and the MA would now be required to offset current prospects for further ranging near current levels prior to a resumption of the overall upward trend.

Conclusion - Once again, forecasts of the death of the commodity supercycle appear to be premature.

China's Shanghai A-Shares (weekly & daily) have seen their second upside key day reversal off lows this month, which are also occurring in the region of the 2010 floor. The medium-term downtrend looks overextended but upside follow through and a close above the mid-October high are the minimum required to provide further evidence that demand is regaining the upper hand.